I don't know of a single person in the market for a ps3 that would say " F the ps3" and settle for the wii instead. They are completely different.
Just cause supplies were limited at launch doesn't mean all is screwed. People in the market for an HD/blu ray player will see the ps3 as a great value since its a game console as well... which makes it a good deal, IMO. and why I think blu-ray will win.
http://www.vgcharts.org/
there are over 1million ps3 in US homes. Although that is not a lot, there are far less HD DVD players out..... advantage bluray